| So you heard about that Rasmussen poll, did you? The one that says Senator Evan Bayh is toast and the only decision left is whether Mike Pence or John Hostettler will be the next junior senator from the great state of Indiana?
Well, news travels fast these days.
I, too, read the results of this latest survey yesterday, and I'll admit to being a little taken aback at first. I mean this was, after all, a shocking set of numbers, and coming on the heels of the media-fueled PenceWatch '10 spectacle, seemed to signal the start of a perfect political storm.
But let's take a step back and look at the situation. Aside from the fact that early polls are almost always terrible -- I can show you a few from this time in 2008 proclaiming a McCain victory over Hillary Clinton in Indiana -- and ignoring the fact that the campaign season has yet to even kick off for either side in this race, there are some simple logistical problems with this gem of a poll.
Here are just a few: - This poll is at odds with every other internal/external set of numbers we've seen. Way off. Outliers happen, folks.
- The damn thing was taken during the Colts game. Let me ask you: would you trust any statewide survey that was taken during an AFC Championship game featuring Peyton Manning and the boys in blue? I didn't think so.
- Rasmussen has become increasingly ideologically motivated, and timing is everything. Politico covered recent criticisms of the outfit earlier this month, and the fact that Republican money paid for this poll while Pence sits on the fence should tell you everything you need to know about the "fair and balanced" output of Rasmussen.
Now, all that aside, it's worth noting that these results are indicative of what is shaping up to be an extremely tough year for incumbents both here in Indiana and across the country. Senator Bayh is well aware of this, and echoed such sentiments this morning on MSNBC."People are mad at Democrats, they're mad at Republicans. They are just angry at the situation. I've seen polls that show me in a stronger position than the one probably you just showed your viewers. The important thing is we focus on what matters to people. Job creation, getting the deficit under control, health care reform that will matter to them right now. The polls take care of themselves. The poll in my case is illustative. The people like me personally, I'm happy to say. I'm doing a good job for them. It's all this other stuff in Washington that has them upset. You've got to change business as usual in Washington. If I have one message this morning, that's it." (Via Howey)
Smart money is still on this whole fiasco just being a PR push on the part of the Pence camp, but regardless of who the Republican candidate ends up being, Senator Bayh has the resources, the infrastructure, and the campaign trail skills to bring his message to Hoosiers. And media clusterfunfest aside, that's something that no poll -- ideological or otherwise -- can change. |
